{"id":38746,"date":"2020-08-27T11:00:52","date_gmt":"2020-08-27T16:00:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/?p=38746"},"modified":"2025-01-17T16:28:55","modified_gmt":"2025-01-17T21:28:55","slug":"seo-forecasting","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/seo-forecasting\/","title":{"rendered":"SEO Forecasting: The Art Of Getting Buy-In"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><\/span><\/p><div class=\"intro-txt\">SEO forecasting is a process that uses historical data to predict a company\u2019s future search engine optimization (SEO) results. When forecasting, you may use 1st party or 3rd party historical data such as traffic, traffic value, click-through rate (CTR), and search volume.<\/div>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Most Ahrefs users will be familiar with our traffic graphs. They show the estimated search traffic for any website or page over time. Here\u2019s the graph for<\/span> <a href=\"https:\/\/ahrefs.com\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">ahrefs.com<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">:<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-38731\" src=\"https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/1-organic-traffic.png\" alt=\"organic traffic\" width=\"654\" height=\"243\"><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Having historical data like this is useful for analyzing the past performance of a website or web page, but what about future performance? If you want to estimate the future organic traffic growth or decline, that\u2019s where SEO forecasting can help. Take a look at this&nbsp;graph.&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-38720\" src=\"https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/2-ahrefs-traffic-forecast.png\" alt=\"ahrefs traffic forecast\" width=\"712\" height=\"424\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/2-ahrefs-traffic-forecast.png 712w, https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/2-ahrefs-traffic-forecast-680x405.png 680w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 712px) 100vw, 712px\"><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">That blue line is the future traffic prediction for Ahrefs. The blue shaded area is the upper and lower uncertainty level. Put simply, there\u2019s an 80% probability of our forecasted organic traffic being within that&nbsp;range.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Even better, this graph took all of two minutes to make using Ahrefs data and open-source scripts I&nbsp;made.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In this guide, I\u2019ll show you how to create graphs like these to predict future performance for your website, pages, and even graphs of you vs competitors so you can <a href=\"https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/seo-buy-in\/\">get more buy-in for SEO projects<\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"#why-forecasting-is-important\">Why SEO forecasting is important<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"#keyword-level-forecasts\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Keyword-level forecasts<\/span><\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"#third-party-data\">First-party vs third-party data<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"#forecasting-seo\">SEO forecasting with third-party data: use&nbsp;cases<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"#adjusting-scripts\">Adjusting script settings &amp; details<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"#advanced-seo-forecasting\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Advanced SEO forecasting<\/span><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div class=\"post-nav-link clearfix\" id=\"section1\"><a class=\"subhead-anchor\" data-tip=\"tooltip__copielink\" rel=\"#section1\"><svg width=\"19\" height=\"19\" viewBox=\"0 0 14 14\" style><g fill=\"none\" fill-rule=\"evenodd\"><path d=\"M0 0h14v14H0z\" \/><path d=\"M7.45 9.887l-1.62 1.621c-.92.92-2.418.92-3.338 0a2.364 2.364 0 0 1 0-3.339l1.62-1.62-1.273-1.272-1.62 1.62a4.161 4.161 0 1 0 5.885 5.884l1.62-1.62L7.45 9.886zM5.527 5.135L7.17 3.492c.92-.92 2.418-.92 3.339 0 .92.92.92 2.418 0 3.339L8.866 8.473l1.272 1.273 1.644-1.643A4.161 4.161 0 1 0 5.897 2.22L4.254 3.863l1.272 1.272zm-.66 3.998a.749.749 0 0 1 0-1.06l2.208-2.206a.749.749 0 1 1 1.06 1.06L5.928 9.133a.75.75 0 0 1-1.061 0z\" style \/><\/g><\/svg><\/a><div class=\"link-text\" data-anchor=\"Why forecasting is important\" data-section=\"why-forecasting-is-important\">\n<h2>Why SEO forecasting is important<\/h2>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The reasons why you\u2019d want to do this vary depending on your situation.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>If you work in<\/b> <a href=\"https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/enterprise-seo\/\"><b>enterprise SEO<\/b><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, you\u2019ll usually have to make projections once or twice a year of how much you\u2019ll grow SEO and increase revenue. The company will also set<\/span> <a href=\"https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/seo-goals\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">goals<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> for you and your team. If there\u2019s a discrepancy between your estimates and company goals, you can use that to argue for more resources.&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Say you project an uplift of 15% year over year (YoY) at the current effort and resource levels, but your target is 25%. Your expected impact doesn\u2019t align with expectations. In this case, you can push for a lower target or more resources to meet the company\u2019s goal.&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Maybe you need additional budget for content to reach the goal, or funding for link building or internal linking. You can use an SEO forecast to argue for resources for projects that matter to&nbsp;you.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>If you\u2019re at an agency<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, SEO forecasting can help with sales or predict the future impact for a client. Most companies want to know when they will be a market leader or beat a particular competitor.&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Suppose a forecast shows they lag behind their target at current effort levels. In that situation, it\u2019s easy for a salesperson to justify an increased budget for projects, a shift in strategy, or additional hours that will allow them to close the gap or overtake competitors.&nbsp;<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><br>\n<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><br>\n<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Adding an SEO forecast to a sales pitch can help elevate your pitch above those of other agencies and justify your requested budget.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><\/span><\/p><div class=\"post-nav-link clearfix\" id=\"section1\"><a class=\"subhead-anchor\" data-tip=\"tooltip__copielink\" rel=\"#section1\"><svg width=\"19\" height=\"19\" viewBox=\"0 0 14 14\" style><g fill=\"none\" fill-rule=\"evenodd\"><path d=\"M0 0h14v14H0z\" \/><path d=\"M7.45 9.887l-1.62 1.621c-.92.92-2.418.92-3.338 0a2.364 2.364 0 0 1 0-3.339l1.62-1.62-1.273-1.272-1.62 1.62a4.161 4.161 0 1 0 5.885 5.884l1.62-1.62L7.45 9.886zM5.527 5.135L7.17 3.492c.92-.92 2.418-.92 3.339 0 .92.92.92 2.418 0 3.339L8.866 8.473l1.272 1.273 1.644-1.643A4.161 4.161 0 1 0 5.897 2.22L4.254 3.863l1.272 1.272zm-.66 3.998a.749.749 0 0 1 0-1.06l2.208-2.206a.749.749 0 1 1 1.06 1.06L5.928 9.133a.75.75 0 0 1-1.061 0z\" style \/><\/g><\/svg><\/a><div class=\"link-text\" data-anchor=\"Keyword-level forecasts\" data-section=\"keyword-level-forecasts\">\n<h2><b>Keyword-level forecasts<\/b><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><\/span><\/p><\/div><\/div>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">A typical formula for keyword level forecasts is:<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><br>\n<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Search volume x average click-through rate (CTR)<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Unfortunately, that only accounts for the keywords you have entered and is usually focused on one keyword per page, when pages rank and get traffic from many&nbsp;terms.<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><br>\n<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><br>\n<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">You also run into the issue of using generic CTR curve models which may not be representative of your site. We actually create a custom CTR curve using your Google Search Console (GSC) data in the GSC Overview report in <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/rank-tracker\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Rank Tracker<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-large wp-image-164115\" src=\"https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/custom-ctr-curve-486x425.png\" alt=\"custom ctr curve\" width=\"486\" height=\"425\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/custom-ctr-curve-486x425.png 486w, https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/custom-ctr-curve-768x672.png 768w, https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/custom-ctr-curve.png 1059w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 486px) 100vw, 486px\"><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">There are already a lot of pre-existing spreadsheets that help you make keyword forecasts from folks such&nbsp;as:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.brainlabsdigital.com\/blog\/seo-forecasting\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Tom Capper<\/span><\/a><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.kevin-indig.com\/a-google-sheets-template-for-seo-traffic-forecasting\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Kevin Indig<\/span><\/a><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><a href=\"https:\/\/searchengineland.com\/seo-forecasting-template-389686\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Adam Tanguay<\/span><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>If you want next-level forecasts, you could even forecast the future volume the keywords. We\u2019ve provided this data for many of the keywords in Keywords Explorer.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-large wp-image-184481\" src=\"https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/keyword-volume-forecast-339x425.png\" alt=\"12 month keyword volume forecast\" width=\"339\" height=\"425\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/keyword-volume-forecast-339x425.png 339w, https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/keyword-volume-forecast.png 659w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 339px) 100vw, 339px\"><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">An easier way than going through this exercise would be to just use the Traffic Potential metric that we have in tools like <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/keywords-explorer\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Keywords Explorer<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. It takes into account all the keywords that you might rank for, not just&nbsp;one.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-large wp-image-164116\" src=\"https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/traffic-potential-680x283.jpg\" alt=\"traffic potential\" width=\"680\" height=\"283\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/traffic-potential-680x283.jpg 680w, https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/traffic-potential-768x320.jpg 768w, https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/traffic-potential-1536x640.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/traffic-potential.jpg 1999w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 680px) 100vw, 680px\"><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Traffic Potential shows the sum of organic traffic that the #1 ranking page for your target keyword receives from all the keywords that it ranks for. In other words, if you build a better page than the one that already exists, you are likely to get as much traffic or more than the current best&nbsp;page.&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"post-nav-link clearfix\" id=\"section1\"><a class=\"subhead-anchor\" data-tip=\"tooltip__copielink\" rel=\"#section1\"><svg width=\"19\" height=\"19\" viewBox=\"0 0 14 14\" style><g fill=\"none\" fill-rule=\"evenodd\"><path d=\"M0 0h14v14H0z\" \/><path d=\"M7.45 9.887l-1.62 1.621c-.92.92-2.418.92-3.338 0a2.364 2.364 0 0 1 0-3.339l1.62-1.62-1.273-1.272-1.62 1.62a4.161 4.161 0 1 0 5.885 5.884l1.62-1.62L7.45 9.886zM5.527 5.135L7.17 3.492c.92-.92 2.418-.92 3.339 0 .92.92.92 2.418 0 3.339L8.866 8.473l1.272 1.273 1.644-1.643A4.161 4.161 0 1 0 5.897 2.22L4.254 3.863l1.272 1.272zm-.66 3.998a.749.749 0 0 1 0-1.06l2.208-2.206a.749.749 0 1 1 1.06 1.06L5.928 9.133a.75.75 0 0 1-1.061 0z\" style \/><\/g><\/svg><\/a><div class=\"link-text\" data-anchor=\"Why use 3rd-party data in forecasting?\" data-section=\"third-party-data\">\n<h2>First-party vs third-party data?<\/h2>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Most SEO forecasts use first-party data sources like<\/span> <a href=\"https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/google-analytics-for-seo\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Google Analytics<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> or<\/span> <a href=\"https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/google-search-console\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Google Search Console<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. If you want an accurate estimate for your website or page, this is absolutely the best data to use. If you need more granularity in your data or to predict seasonality, use one of these sources. Here\u2019s a<\/span> <a href=\"https:\/\/locomotive.agency\/technical-seo\/website-traffic-prediction-with-google-colaboratory-and-facebook-prophet\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">tutorial from JR Oakes<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> that will&nbsp;help.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The problem is that SEO isn\u2019t a single-player game. What you need to know is how your site or page is likely to perform relative to the competition. If your competitors are likely to outpace your SEO performance, that will influence your strategy and where you devote resources. And the only way to get data on your competitors is to use third-party sources like Ahrefs.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">You may wonder if you can reliably use third-party data for SEO forecasting. At Ahrefs, the way we calculate our average volume data does not see daily granularity or seasonality, but it is useful for finding patterns and forecasting trends. If you use monthly volume instead, this data does have the trend data included. We also re-calculate previous data and update our graphs to remove irregularities that would otherwise be caused by updates to our data or calculations.<\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"post-nav-link clearfix\" id=\"section1\"><a class=\"subhead-anchor\" data-tip=\"tooltip__copielink\" rel=\"#section1\"><svg width=\"19\" height=\"19\" viewBox=\"0 0 14 14\" style><g fill=\"none\" fill-rule=\"evenodd\"><path d=\"M0 0h14v14H0z\" \/><path d=\"M7.45 9.887l-1.62 1.621c-.92.92-2.418.92-3.338 0a2.364 2.364 0 0 1 0-3.339l1.62-1.62-1.273-1.272-1.62 1.62a4.161 4.161 0 1 0 5.885 5.884l1.62-1.62L7.45 9.886zM5.527 5.135L7.17 3.492c.92-.92 2.418-.92 3.339 0 .92.92.92 2.418 0 3.339L8.866 8.473l1.272 1.273 1.644-1.643A4.161 4.161 0 1 0 5.897 2.22L4.254 3.863l1.272 1.272zm-.66 3.998a.749.749 0 0 1 0-1.06l2.208-2.206a.749.749 0 1 1 1.06 1.06L5.928 9.133a.75.75 0 0 1-1.061 0z\" style \/><\/g><\/svg><\/a><div class=\"link-text\" data-anchor=\"Forecasting with SEO data: use cases\" data-section=\"forecasting-seo\">\n<h2>SEO forecasting with third-party data: use&nbsp;cases<\/h2>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Graphs like the one I showed at the beginning of the article usually require some knowledge of coding and modeling libraries. That\u2019s why many companies and agencies don\u2019t do SEO forecasting. They don\u2019t have the necessary resources like a data analyst or data scientist on their payroll.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>With this in mind, I spent some time creating a bunch of plug-and-play scripts that you can run for free in <a href=\"https:\/\/colab.research.google.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Google Colab<\/a>. Just choose what you want to forecast below. I\u2019ve included a link to the script and instructions on how to use it under each section.<\/p>\n<p>I\u2019ve used model called Prophet for these, but there are many other forecasting models like SARIMA that could be used as&nbsp;well.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"#predicting-future-traffic\">Predicting future traffic<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"#predicting-future-traffic-value\">Predicting future traffic value<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"#predicting-future-competitor-traffic\">Predicting future competitor traffic<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"#predicting-future-competitor-traffic-value\">Predicting future competitor traffic value<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"#predicting-future-competitor-page-traffic\">Predicting future&nbsp;competitor page traffic<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"#core-update-performance-predictions\">Making performance predictions during a core update<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><\/span><\/p><div class=\"sidenote\"><div class=\"sidenote-title\">Sidenote.<\/div> You can still download the data from the Legacy Overview report for these. If you use the new Overview report, you will need to adjust the export to match the format below which has 1 column for the date and another for the organic traffic.&nbsp;<\/div>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-large wp-image-164117\" src=\"https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/spreadsheet-format-414x425.png\" alt=\"spreadsheet format for seo forecasting scripts\" width=\"414\" height=\"425\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/spreadsheet-format-414x425.png 414w, https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/spreadsheet-format.png 592w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 414px) 100vw, 414px\"><\/p>\n<h3 id=\"predicting-future-traffic\">Predicting future traffic<\/h3>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-38742\" src=\"https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/2-ahrefs-traffic-forecast-2.png\" alt=\"ahrefs traffic forecast 2\" width=\"712\" height=\"424\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/2-ahrefs-traffic-forecast-2.png 712w, https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/2-ahrefs-traffic-forecast-2-680x405.png 680w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 712px) 100vw, 712px\"><\/p>\n<p>This script will forecast your future traffic one year from now. When I run this one for ahrefs.com, the trend (dark blue line) shows that one year from now, we will likely be up to 1.3 million monthly organic visits from our current level of 880,000.<\/p>\n<p>Here\u2019s how to predict organic traffic for your&nbsp;site:<\/p>\n<h4>1. Download your data in Ahrefs<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>Navigate to <a href=\"https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/site-explorer\">Site Explorer<\/a>&nbsp;and enter the domain you want data&nbsp;for<\/li>\n<li>In Overview, go to the \u201cOrganic search\u201d tab<\/li>\n<li>Find the \u201cOrganic traffic\u201d chart and select the period you want (it defaults to \u201cAll&nbsp;time\u201d)<\/li>\n<li>Click Export &gt; CSV and save the&nbsp;file<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-38716\" src=\"https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/export-organic-traffic.gif\" alt=\"export organic traffic\" width=\"1334\" height=\"832\"><\/p>\n<h4>2. Make a copy of the notebook and open&nbsp;it<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>Open the <a href=\"https:\/\/colab.research.google.com\/drive\/1oJ2gD5w3EyTc12O39GzKiNL8wAiNGsSz?usp=sharing\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Traffic Forecast Notebook<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Click File &gt; \u201cSave a copy in&nbsp;Drive\u201d<\/li>\n<li>It should open a new window with the notebook, but if not, then go to your Google Drive, find the file, and open&nbsp;it.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h4>3. Run the notebook and upload your&nbsp;file<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>Click Runtime &gt; \u201cRun&nbsp;all\u201d<\/li>\n<li>Upload your file by clicking \u201cChoose Files,\u201d selecting your downloaded file, and clicking Open.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-38737\" src=\"https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/run.gif\" alt=\"run the script\" width=\"1476\" height=\"711\"><\/p>\n<h3 id=\"predicting-future-traffic-value\">Predicting future traffic value<\/h3>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-38724\" src=\"https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/3-ahrefs-traffic-value-forecast.png\" alt=\"ahrefs traffic value forecast\" width=\"712\" height=\"424\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/3-ahrefs-traffic-value-forecast.png 712w, https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/3-ahrefs-traffic-value-forecast-680x405.png 680w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 712px) 100vw, 712px\"><\/p>\n<p>If you\u2019re not familiar with Traffic Value, it\u2019s what it would cost to buy your current level of organic traffic from Google Ads. Another way to think of it is how much money the target website or URL has saved by ranking for keywords organically instead of buying paid traffic.<\/p>\n<p>This script will forecast your future traffic value one year from now. When I run this for ahrefs.com, the trend shows that one year from now, we will likely be at a Traffic value of $2.9 million, up from our current level of $1.9 million.<\/p>\n<p>Here\u2019s how to predict organic Traffic Value for your&nbsp;site:<\/p>\n<h4>1. Download your data in Ahrefs<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>Navigate to <a href=\"https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/site-explorer\">Site Explorer<\/a>&nbsp;and enter the domain you want data&nbsp;for<\/li>\n<li>In Overview, go to the \u201cOrganic search\u201d tab<\/li>\n<li>Find the \u201cTraffic value\u201d chart and select the period you want (it defaults to \u201cAll&nbsp;time\u201d)<\/li>\n<li>Click Export &gt; CSV&nbsp;and save the&nbsp;file<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1347\" height=\"804\" class=\"wp-image-38725\" src=\"https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/export-traffic-value.gif\" alt=\"export traffic value\"><\/p>\n<h4>2. Make a copy of the notebook and open&nbsp;it<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>Open the <a href=\"https:\/\/colab.research.google.com\/drive\/1_3VT4cTkoz8Yp3XSMTbUYr-7EWs0deC9?usp=sharing\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Traffic Value Forecasting Notebook<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Click File &gt; \u201cSave a copy in&nbsp;Drive\u201d<\/li>\n<li>It should open a new window with the notebook, but if not, then go to your Google Drive, find the file, and open&nbsp;it.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h4>3. Run the notebook and upload your&nbsp;file<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>Click Runtime &gt; \u201cRun&nbsp;all\u201d<\/li>\n<li>Upload your file by clicking \u201cChoose Files0,\u201d, selecting your downloaded file, and clicking Open.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-38737\" src=\"https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/run.gif\" alt=\"run the forecasting script\" width=\"1476\" height=\"711\"><\/p>\n<h3 id=\"predicting-future-competitor-traffic\">Predicting future competitor traffic<\/h3>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-38721\" src=\"https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/4-competitor-traffic-forecast.png\" alt=\"competitor traffic forecast\" width=\"711\" height=\"496\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/4-competitor-traffic-forecast.png 711w, https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/4-competitor-traffic-forecast-609x425.png 609w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 711px) 100vw, 711px\"><\/p>\n<p>This script will forecast not only your growth but also the growth of your competitors. Notice that in the next year, Ahrefs is projected to overtake Moz at current effort levels. If you\u2019re not at the level you want to be or the position you want to be in versus competitors, then a change is required. Maybe that change is a new strategy, new projects, or additional resources to get more done and have more impact. This can help you justify further investment in SEO by estimating your position vs. competitors in the future.<\/p>\n<p>Here\u2019s how to predict traffic performance for your site vs. competitors:<\/p>\n<h4>1. Download your data in Ahrefs<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>Navigate to <a href=\"https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/site-explorer\">Site Explorer<\/a>&nbsp;and enter the domain you want data&nbsp;for<\/li>\n<li>In Overview, go to the \u201cOrganic search\u201d tab<\/li>\n<li>Find the \u201cOrganic traffic\u201d chart and select &nbsp;the period you want which defaults to \u201cAll&nbsp;time\u201d<\/li>\n<li>Click Export &gt; CSV&nbsp;and save the&nbsp;file<\/li>\n<li>Repeat for each website that you want to compare<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1312\" height=\"730\" class=\"wp-image-38718\" src=\"https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/competitor-traffic-download.gif\" alt=\"competitor traffic download\"><\/p>\n<h4>2. Make a copy of the notebook and open&nbsp;it<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>Choose the number of competitors you want to compare.<\/li>\n<li>Open the correct Traffic Forecast Notebook below:&nbsp;<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/colab.research.google.com\/drive\/16MjFZUlqg95WJxRpeTdEUZHaTX5hBOb7?usp=sharing\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">5 Site Traffic Forecast Notebook<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/colab.research.google.com\/drive\/1rvAGScvmjbhibCQw1f0PJFT282yyMD1O?usp=sharing\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">4 Site Traffic Forecast Notebook<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/colab.research.google.com\/drive\/1Rx5HHGl4W5FBToGaZNeMO1PSMATPuBwE?usp=sharing\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">3 Site Traffic Forecast Notebook<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/colab.research.google.com\/drive\/1AbQurrsJeRuv_n6R-r3jeJG8qswNZUBh?usp=sharing\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">2 Site Traffic Forecast Notebook<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li>Click File &gt; \u201cSave a copy in&nbsp;Drive\u201d<\/li>\n<li>It should open a new window with the notebook, but if not, then go to your Google Drive, find the file, and open&nbsp;it.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h4>3. Run the notebook and upload your&nbsp;file<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>Click Runtime &gt; \u201cRun&nbsp;all\u201d<\/li>\n<li>This time there are multiple upload boxes. For each competitor, upload your file by clicking \u201cChoose Files,\u201d selecting your downloaded file, and clicking Open.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><img alt><\/p>\n<h3 id=\"predicting-future-competitor-traffic-value\">Predicting future competitor traffic value<\/h3>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"711\" height=\"496\" class=\"wp-image-38735\" src=\"https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/5-competitor-traffic-value-forecast.png\" alt=\"5 competitor traffic value forecast\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/5-competitor-traffic-value-forecast.png 711w, https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/5-competitor-traffic-value-forecast-609x425.png 609w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 711px) 100vw, 711px\"><\/p>\n<p>This script will forecast your growth in Traffic Value and the growth in Traffic Value for your competitors. Notice that we expect no significant changes in the order of competitors in the next year at current effort levels. If someone wanted to break out and make a change, they would likely need a change in strategy or increase resources to have an impact. An estimate like this can help justify the need for change or funding. For instance, if I were lower on this chart and stagnating while competitors seem to be pulling ahead, I\u2019d be making a case for more resources while also looking into what competitors are doing that I am&nbsp;not.<\/p>\n<p>Here\u2019s how to predict traffic value performance for your site vs. competitors:<\/p>\n<h4>1. Download your data in Ahrefs<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>Navigate to <a href=\"https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/site-explorer\">Site Explorer<\/a>&nbsp;and enter the domain you want data&nbsp;for<\/li>\n<li>In Overview, go to the \u201cOrganic search\u201d tab<\/li>\n<li>Find the \u201cTraffic value\u201d chart and select the period you want (it defaults to \u201cAll&nbsp;time\u201d.)<\/li>\n<li>Click Export &gt; CSV and save the&nbsp;file<\/li>\n<li>Repeat for each website that you want to compare<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1347\" height=\"804\" class=\"wp-image-38725\" src=\"https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/export-traffic-value.gif\" alt=\"export traffic value\"><\/p>\n<h4>2. Make a copy of the notebook and open&nbsp;it<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>Choose the number of competitors you want to compare.<\/li>\n<li>Open the correct Traffic Value Forecast Notebook below:&nbsp;<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/colab.research.google.com\/drive\/1lHMtQufL6uTsiy-fkIfc5WW9l2lqiO9i?usp=sharing\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">5 Site Traffic Value Forecasting Notebook<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/colab.research.google.com\/drive\/1RoOiz14evoAJPxbSIiWIUmhHcfFGalqk?usp=sharing\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">4 Site Traffic Value Forecasting Notebook<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/colab.research.google.com\/drive\/1E2bb_jz69u3UpQxa_na0yAajGVzB31Z1?usp=sharing\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">3 Site Traffic Value Forecasting Notebook<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/colab.research.google.com\/drive\/1KFnkYzQzvpTFw0Tj6pUAOFf9XcSK_Sxd?usp=sharing\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">2 Site Traffic Value Forecasting Notebook<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li>Click File &gt; \u201cSave a copy in&nbsp;Drive\u201d<\/li>\n<li>It should open a new window with the notebook, but if not, then go to your Google Drive, find the file, and open&nbsp;it.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h4>3. Run the notebook and upload your&nbsp;file<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>Click Runtime &gt; \u201cRun&nbsp;all\u201d<\/li>\n<li>This time there are multiple upload boxes. For each competitor, upload your file by clicking \u201cChoose Files,\u201d selecting your downloaded file, and clicking Open.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><img alt><\/p>\n<h3 id=\"predicting-future-competitor-page-traffic\">Predicting future competitor page traffic<\/h3>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-38732\" src=\"https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/6-competitor-page-traffic-forecast.png\" alt=\"competitor page traffic forecast\" width=\"736\" height=\"496\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/6-competitor-page-traffic-forecast.png 736w, https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/6-competitor-page-traffic-forecast-631x425.png 631w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 736px) 100vw, 736px\"><\/p>\n<p>With this script, I\u2019ve graphed the top pages\u2019 traffic for searches about \u201cGoogle search operators.\u201d As Ahrefs, I\u2019m reasonably confident that we don\u2019t need to update this post anytime soon as we seem to have comprehensive coverage and a sizable lead in traffic vs. competitors. However, Spyfu appears to be coming on strong, and it looks like their page will surpass Moz and possibly Google in traffic in the next year. If I were Moz, this might be a sign I should do a re-write or add additional content to my page. The same for Google Guide, it looks like their traffic has stagnated compared to competitors, so it may be time for a <a href=\"https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/republishing-content\/\">content refresh<\/a>&nbsp;if they care about this page. Do you see where I\u2019m going with&nbsp;this?<\/p>\n<p>SEO forecasting for pages can help you estimate your market position in the future. You can use this information to prioritize your content updates based on which pages are most at risk of falling behind competing pages.<\/p>\n<p>Here\u2019s how to predict traffic performance at the page level for your site vs. competitors:<\/p>\n<h4>1. Download your data in Ahrefs<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>Navigate to <a href=\"https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/site-explorer\">Site Explorer<\/a>&nbsp;and enter the domain you want data&nbsp;for<\/li>\n<li>In Overview, go to the \u201cOrganic search\u201d tab<\/li>\n<li>Find the \u201cOrganic traffic\u201d chart and select the period you want (it defaults to \u201cAll&nbsp;time\u201d)<\/li>\n<li>Click Export &gt; CSV&nbsp;and save the&nbsp;file<\/li>\n<li>Repeat for each website that you want to compare<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1600\" height=\"801\" class=\"wp-image-38733\" src=\"https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/download-page-data.gif\" alt=\"download page data\"><\/p>\n<h4>2. Make a copy of the notebook and open&nbsp;it<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>Choose the number of competitors you want to compare.<\/li>\n<li>Open the correct Traffic Forecast Notebook below:&nbsp;<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/colab.research.google.com\/drive\/1fmKejx0FdaCXpXGSwJIBx8u6JDSEM_pD?usp=sharing\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">5 Page Traffic Forecast Notebook<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/colab.research.google.com\/drive\/1sHSwYd-TswJB1zyvPERkE6Br0kr39bEA?usp=sharing\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">4 Page Traffic Forecast Notebook<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/colab.research.google.com\/drive\/1sFHEizbkNb2pt7drnHFGgsWGlRP05cnd?usp=sharing\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">3 Page Traffic Forecast Notebook<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/colab.research.google.com\/drive\/1-qJdDOSJk0q-8KJmJEpYI3S_NkXDotRf?usp=sharing\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">2 Page Traffic Forecast Notebook<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li>Click File &gt; \u201cSave a copy in&nbsp;Drive\u201d<\/li>\n<li>It should open a new window with the notebook, but if not, then go to your Google Drive, find the file, and open&nbsp;it.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h4>3. Run the notebook and upload your&nbsp;file<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>Click Runtime &gt; \u201cRun&nbsp;all\u201d<\/li>\n<li>This time there are multiple upload boxes. For each competitor, upload your file by clicking \u201cChoose Files,\u201d selecting your downloaded file, and clicking Open.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><img alt><\/p>\n<h3 id=\"core-update-performance-predictions\">Making performance predictions during a core update<\/h3>\n<p>I think everyone wants to know how they will perform during an update, especially websites who\u2019ve had issues in the past. I wanted to show how a traffic forecast can progress as new data is&nbsp;added.<\/p>\n<p>For this, I\u2019m going to use a website that historically has seen ups and downs during core updates, verywellhealth.com. Notice that many of their ups and downs occurred during core updates, including a decline in <a href=\"https:\/\/searchengineland.com\/google-may-2020-core-update-is-done-rolling-out-334826\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">the last major update<\/a>&nbsp;on May&nbsp;4th.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-38745\" src=\"https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/7-verywellhealth-traffic.png\" alt=\"verywellhealth traffic\" width=\"1262\" height=\"670\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/7-verywellhealth-traffic.png 1262w, https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/7-verywellhealth-traffic-680x361.png 680w, https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/7-verywellhealth-traffic-768x408.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1262px) 100vw, 1262px\"><\/p>\n<p>For the animation below, I have a blue line for the actual data until July 30th. The red line has no data beyond the days displayed on the GIF. Even before the May 4th update, the model was predicting a decline. When I added the update on the 4th, it predicted an even steeper decline.<\/p>\n<p>Each additional day of data changes the prediction slightly as it incorporates the new information. All of the models were expecting a steeper drop than what happened, but they also predicted a slight recovery. Each predicted model seems to reasonably accurately match the actual traffic by the end of July, nearly two months in the future.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"700\" height=\"450\" class=\"wp-image-38743\" src=\"https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/core-update-forecasts.gif\" alt=\"core update forecasts\"><\/p>\n<p>For fun, below is the current SEO forecast for one year from now to see how it does. You\u2019ll notice that based on the fitted trend, the model thinks the traffic at the time of writing should be a little higher than it is now (where the blue line ends), but the site is likely to see some significant declines in the future. It\u2019s predicted that the website will lose roughly half it\u2019s traffic in the next year alone. I guess we\u2019ll see if that holds&nbsp;true.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-38722\" src=\"https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/8-verywellhealth-forecast.png\" alt=\"verywellhealth traffic forecast\" width=\"700\" height=\"450\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/8-verywellhealth-forecast.png 700w, https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/8-verywellhealth-forecast-661x425.png 661w, https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/8-verywellhealth-forecast-260x166.png 260w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 700px) 100vw, 700px\"><\/p>\n<div class=\"post-nav-link clearfix\" id=\"section1\"><a class=\"subhead-anchor\" data-tip=\"tooltip__copielink\" rel=\"#section1\"><svg width=\"19\" height=\"19\" viewBox=\"0 0 14 14\" style><g fill=\"none\" fill-rule=\"evenodd\"><path d=\"M0 0h14v14H0z\" \/><path d=\"M7.45 9.887l-1.62 1.621c-.92.92-2.418.92-3.338 0a2.364 2.364 0 0 1 0-3.339l1.62-1.62-1.273-1.272-1.62 1.62a4.161 4.161 0 1 0 5.885 5.884l1.62-1.62L7.45 9.886zM5.527 5.135L7.17 3.492c.92-.92 2.418-.92 3.339 0 .92.92.92 2.418 0 3.339L8.866 8.473l1.272 1.273 1.644-1.643A4.161 4.161 0 1 0 5.897 2.22L4.254 3.863l1.272 1.272zm-.66 3.998a.749.749 0 0 1 0-1.06l2.208-2.206a.749.749 0 1 1 1.06 1.06L5.928 9.133a.75.75 0 0 1-1.061 0z\" style \/><\/g><\/svg><\/a><div class=\"link-text\" data-anchor=\"Adjusting script settings &amp; details\" data-section=\"adjusting-scripts\">\n<h2>Adjusting script settings &amp; details<\/h2>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<p>By default I\u2019ve made some assumptions in the scripts above including:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Core updates until the time of writing (July&nbsp;2020);<\/li>\n<li>A window of 14 days to measure the data after core updates;<\/li>\n<li>Predictions for 365&nbsp;days.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Here are some things you may want to do differently that will impact your SEO forecast.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"#add-additional-updates\">Add additional updates<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"#change-holiday-period\">Change the holiday period<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"#forecast-longer-shorter-periods\">Forecast longer or shorter periods<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"#change-initial-data-period\">Change the period of your initial data<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"#use-part-of-website\">Use only part of a website<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"#change-line-colors\">Change the line colors<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 id=\"add-additional-updates\">Add additional updates<\/h3>\n<p>While I have core updates in the table that start with the earliest Ahrefs data, you may want to add updates that have happened or add future updates to the scripts. You just need to add additional dates to the array in the section below. The format is YYYY-MM-DD.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-38728\" src=\"https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/9-updates.png\" alt=\"core updates\" width=\"856\" height=\"228\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/9-updates.png 856w, https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/9-updates-680x181.png 680w, https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/9-updates-768x205.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 856px) 100vw, 856px\"><\/p>\n<h3 id=\"change-holiday-period\">Change the holiday period<\/h3>\n<p>I set the period for holidays as 14 days to give time for Google updates to roll out and Ahrefs to update the database. While I think this is reasonable, your data may show faster or slower changes. Check after the updates how long it seems to take for your data to stabilize and adjust this time if you need to. You can find the holiday time period in the code as <code>upper_window<\/code>&nbsp;as shown&nbsp;below.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1007\" height=\"250\" class=\"wp-image-38730\" src=\"https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/10-holidays.png\" alt=\"10 holidays\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/10-holidays.png 1007w, https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/10-holidays-680x169.png 680w, https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/10-holidays-768x191.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1007px) 100vw, 1007px\"><\/p>\n<h3 id=\"forecast-longer-shorter-periods\">Forecast longer or shorter periods<\/h3>\n<p>By default, I have the scripts set to predict 365 days into the future, or one year. You can easily change this if you need to make predictions for a different period like a few months, or even predict multiple years into the future. For each item where you\u2019re making a prediction, there will be a section that includes <code>periods=##<\/code>. The number here is the number of days you want to predict, so update to get predictions for the period you&nbsp;want.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-38727\" src=\"https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/11-period.png\" alt=\"forecast timeframe\" width=\"610\" height=\"124\"><\/p>\n<p>For instance, if I want to forecast for three years, I\u2019d change <code>periods=365<\/code>&nbsp;to <code>periods=1095<\/code>&nbsp;and my forecast for future organic search traffic for ahrefs.com would be what is shown&nbsp;below.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-38736\" src=\"https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/12-three-year-forecast.png\" alt=\"three year SEO traffic forecast\" width=\"712\" height=\"424\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/12-three-year-forecast.png 712w, https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/12-three-year-forecast-680x405.png 680w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 712px) 100vw, 712px\"><\/p>\n<h3 id=\"change-initial-data-period\">Change the period of your initial data<\/h3>\n<p>I generally use the full historical data to make predictions by downloading all the data from the organic search overview chart. If you want to use less data, you can either edit the downloaded .csv files or download data for a different period, such as one&nbsp;year.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-38739\" src=\"https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/13-data-periods-ahrefs.png\" alt=\" data periods ahrefs\" width=\"736\" height=\"382\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/13-data-periods-ahrefs.png 736w, https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/13-data-periods-ahrefs-680x353.png 680w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 736px) 100vw, 736px\"><\/p>\n<p>You\u2019ll notice that in the forecast below for ahrefs.com, the estimate in one year is higher. That\u2019s because a lot of recent growth pulls the trend-line higher. Different periods will yield different forecasts.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-38741\" src=\"https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/2-ahrefs-traffic-forecast-1.png\" alt=\"ahrefs seo forecast for traffic with a shorter period\" width=\"712\" height=\"424\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/2-ahrefs-traffic-forecast-1.png 712w, https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/2-ahrefs-traffic-forecast-1-680x405.png 680w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 712px) 100vw, 712px\"><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-38729\" src=\"https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/14-one-year-forecast.png\" alt=\"one year organic traffic forecast\" width=\"712\" height=\"424\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/14-one-year-forecast.png 712w, https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/14-one-year-forecast-680x405.png 680w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 712px) 100vw, 712px\"><\/p>\n<h3 id=\"use-part-of-website\">Use only part of a website<\/h3>\n<p>The script accepts any .csv file. You can use an entire website or filter to a particular section, such as the blog\u2019s path. You can even filter and use traffic for specific pages.<\/p>\n<h3 id=\"change-line-colors\">Change the line colors<\/h3>\n<p>If the colors on the graph don\u2019t align with those of your brand, that\u2019s easy to change.<\/p>\n<p>First, find the line that corresponds with the website you want to change and update the color for it in the section shown below. Adjust the colors to represent the different websites or brands.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-38723\" src=\"https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/15-line-colors-copy.png\" alt=\"edit line colors\" width=\"868\" height=\"410\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/15-line-colors-copy.png 868w, https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/15-line-colors-copy-680x321.png 680w, https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/15-line-colors-copy-768x363.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 868px) 100vw, 868px\"><\/p>\n<p>Next, re-run this cell. Click the play button, and the graph will update.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-38740\" src=\"https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/16-line-colors-play.png\" alt=\"press play on this section to update the line colors\" width=\"868\" height=\"410\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/16-line-colors-play.png 868w, https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/16-line-colors-play-680x321.png 680w, https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/16-line-colors-play-768x363.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 868px) 100vw, 868px\"><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><\/span><\/p><div class=\"post-nav-link clearfix\" id=\"section1\"><a class=\"subhead-anchor\" data-tip=\"tooltip__copielink\" rel=\"#section1\"><svg width=\"19\" height=\"19\" viewBox=\"0 0 14 14\" style><g fill=\"none\" fill-rule=\"evenodd\"><path d=\"M0 0h14v14H0z\" \/><path d=\"M7.45 9.887l-1.62 1.621c-.92.92-2.418.92-3.338 0a2.364 2.364 0 0 1 0-3.339l1.62-1.62-1.273-1.272-1.62 1.62a4.161 4.161 0 1 0 5.885 5.884l1.62-1.62L7.45 9.886zM5.527 5.135L7.17 3.492c.92-.92 2.418-.92 3.339 0 .92.92.92 2.418 0 3.339L8.866 8.473l1.272 1.273 1.644-1.643A4.161 4.161 0 1 0 5.897 2.22L4.254 3.863l1.272 1.272zm-.66 3.998a.749.749 0 0 1 0-1.06l2.208-2.206a.749.749 0 1 1 1.06 1.06L5.928 9.133a.75.75 0 0 1-1.061 0z\" style \/><\/g><\/svg><\/a><div class=\"link-text\" data-anchor=\"Advanced SEO forecasting\" data-section=\"advanced-seo-forecasting\">\n<h2><b>Advanced SEO forecasting<\/b><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><\/span><\/p><\/div><\/div>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Forecasts can be as simple or as complex as you want them to be. They\u2019re educated guesses based on data. In my experience more complex forecasts take more time and effort to put together and aren\u2019t necessarily better. Most of the time, the ROI of building complex forecasts is not&nbsp;there.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The SEO forecasts I showed take a simplistic view of the data. A lot can change on your website and your competitors\u2019 websites, such as deleting or creating new pages that target new keywords. More advanced predictions may take into account things like changes in search volume,<\/span> <a href=\"https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/serps\/#serp-features\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">SERP features<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, keywords you know you will target, CTR,&nbsp;etc.&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">We\u2019re also taking into account both branded and non-branded traffic in the forecasts when you might want to look at that data separately. You may even need to combine this data with conversions, average order value, or come up with return on investment (ROI) numbers.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><b>Final thoughts<\/b><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Forecasts are always going to have some amount of uncertainty because changes are continually happening. You or your competitors can make website changes, change overall strategy, or make additional investments. Any of these can change the trajectory of the data, so you may want to update your SEO forecasts periodically to take into account any recent trend changes. Have fun forecasting!<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Have questions? Let me know on<\/span> <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/patrickstox\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Most Ahrefs users will be familiar with our traffic graphs. They show the estimated search traffic for any website or page over time. Here\u2019s the graph for ahrefs.com: Having historical data like this is useful for analyzing the past performance<span class=\"ellipsis\">\u2026<\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"read-more\">Read more \u203a<\/div>\n<p><!-- end of .read-more --><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":150,"featured_media":38807,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"wp_typography_post_enhancements_disabled":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[461],"tags":[],"coauthors":[377],"class_list":["post-38746","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-enterprise-seo","odd"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>SEO Forecasting: The Art Of Getting Buy-In<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Learn how to predict future performance of your website, pages, and competitors with ease.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/seo-forecasting\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"SEO Forecasting: The Art Of Getting Buy-In\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Predict the future performance of your site.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/seo-forecasting\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"SEO Blog by Ahrefs\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/Ahrefs\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:author\" content=\"patrickstox\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2020-08-27T16:00:52+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-01-17T21:28:55+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" 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