{"id":189111,"date":"2025-06-25T05:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-06-25T10:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/?p=189111"},"modified":"2025-08-26T09:51:18","modified_gmt":"2025-08-26T14:51:18","slug":"domain-link-metrics-not-good-mention-predictors","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/domain-link-metrics-not-good-mention-predictors\/","title":{"rendered":"Domain-Level Link Metrics May Not Be Good Predictors of AI Search Mentions"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<div class=\"intro-txt\">Going into this study, I suspected that domain-level link metrics would not be a good predictor for mentions. I was expecting Google AI Overviews to show more of a correlation since they may use some of the traditional search signals, whereas the other systems may not. For traditional search, usually the page-level metrics are more predictive of rankings than domain-level ones.<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>I looked at the top 50 websites mentioned in <a href=\"https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/brand-radar\">Ahrefs Brand Radar<\/a> for Google AI Overviews, ChatGPT, and Perplexity. This is across ~76.7M AI Overviews, 957k ChatGPT prompts, and 953.5k Perplexity prompts for the month of June&nbsp;2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I compared the website mentions to their Ahrefs Rank (AR) in Ahrefs. Ahrefs Rank (AR) ranks all the websites in our database in order, by the size and quality of their followed referring domains.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"sidenote\"><div class=\"sidenote-title\">Sidenote.<\/div>Brand Radar isn\u2019t just another LLM visibility monitor, we track a large amount of queries across all of these systems and you can query for any product, service, or brand and compare vs competitors. It\u2019s more like Site Explorer than it is Rank Tracker. Plus we have the web visibility index so that you can see how you\u2019re talked about online and the search demand index to see how popular you are in searches.<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Here\u2019s what Brand Radar looks&nbsp;like.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1273\" height=\"2500\" src=\"https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/ahrefs-brand-radar.jpeg\" alt=\"Ahrefs Brand Radar\" class=\"wp-image-188989\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/ahrefs-brand-radar.jpeg 1273w, https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/ahrefs-brand-radar-216x425.jpeg 216w, https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/ahrefs-brand-radar-768x1508.jpeg 768w, https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/ahrefs-brand-radar-782x1536.jpeg 782w, https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/ahrefs-brand-radar-1043x2048.jpeg 1043w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1273px) 100vw, 1273px\"><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Let\u2019s dig&nbsp;in.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"intro-tok\" id=\"intro_tok\" style=\"display:none;\"><div class=\"intro-title\">Contents<\/div><a href=\"#\" class=\"expand-dots\"><span><\/span><span><\/span><span><\/span><\/a><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p><a id=\"post-187899-_gjdgxs\"><\/a><\/p><div class=\"post-nav-link clearfix\" id=\"section1\"><a class=\"subhead-anchor\" data-tip=\"tooltip__copielink\" rel=\"#section1\"><svg width=\"19\" height=\"19\" viewBox=\"0 0 14 14\" style><g fill=\"none\" fill-rule=\"evenodd\"><path d=\"M0 0h14v14H0z\" \/><path d=\"M7.45 9.887l-1.62 1.621c-.92.92-2.418.92-3.338 0a2.364 2.364 0 0 1 0-3.339l1.62-1.62-1.273-1.272-1.62 1.62a4.161 4.161 0 1 0 5.885 5.884l1.62-1.62L7.45 9.886zM5.527 5.135L7.17 3.492c.92-.92 2.418-.92 3.339 0 .92.92.92 2.418 0 3.339L8.866 8.473l1.272 1.273 1.644-1.643A4.161 4.161 0 1 0 5.897 2.22L4.254 3.863l1.272 1.272zm-.66 3.998a.749.749 0 0 1 0-1.06l2.208-2.206a.749.749 0 1 1 1.06 1.06L5.928 9.133a.75.75 0 0 1-1.061 0z\" style \/><\/g><\/svg><\/a><div class=\"link-text\" data-anchor=\"Key takeaways\" data-section=\"key-takeaways\">\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a id=\"post-189111-_21tosyt52og0\"><\/a>Key takeaways<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Perplexity shows a moderate correlation<\/strong> between the mentions of its most-cited domains and their Ahrefs Rank, <strong>Google AI Overviews a very weak correlation<\/strong>, and <strong>ChatGPT no correlation.<\/strong> I was expecting Google to have a stronger relationship than Perplexity, so the results surprised me.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This correlation would likely change with a larger dataset outside of just the top 50. The top 50 are all extremely well-linked and cited websites, but that probably doesn\u2019t matter as much as page-level signals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"post-nav-link clearfix\" id=\"section1\"><a class=\"subhead-anchor\" data-tip=\"tooltip__copielink\" rel=\"#section1\"><svg width=\"19\" height=\"19\" viewBox=\"0 0 14 14\" style><g fill=\"none\" fill-rule=\"evenodd\"><path d=\"M0 0h14v14H0z\" \/><path d=\"M7.45 9.887l-1.62 1.621c-.92.92-2.418.92-3.338 0a2.364 2.364 0 0 1 0-3.339l1.62-1.62-1.273-1.272-1.62 1.62a4.161 4.161 0 1 0 5.885 5.884l1.62-1.62L7.45 9.886zM5.527 5.135L7.17 3.492c.92-.92 2.418-.92 3.339 0 .92.92.92 2.418 0 3.339L8.866 8.473l1.272 1.273 1.644-1.643A4.161 4.161 0 1 0 5.897 2.22L4.254 3.863l1.272 1.272zm-.66 3.998a.749.749 0 0 1 0-1.06l2.208-2.206a.749.749 0 1 1 1.06 1.06L5.928 9.133a.75.75 0 0 1-1.061 0z\" style \/><\/g><\/svg><\/a><div class=\"link-text\" data-anchor=\"The nerdy data\" data-section=\"data\">\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a id=\"post-188988-_5do2y3ohglf9\"><\/a>The nerdy&nbsp;data<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>I\u2019ll give the usual correlation does not equal causation disclaimer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Here are the <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Spearman%27s_rank_correlation_coefficient\">Spearman rank correlations<\/a> for mention share vs. Ahrefs Rank across the top 50 domains in each system:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<table id=\"tablepress-430\" class=\"tablepress tablepress-id-430 tablepress-responsive tablepress-ahrefs-width-720px\">\n<thead>\n<tr class=\"row-1 odd\">\n\t<th class=\"column-1\">AI Assistant<\/th><th class=\"column-2\">Spearman Rho<\/th><th class=\"column-3\">P-Value<\/th><th class=\"column-4\">Correlation<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr class=\"row-2 even\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">Google AI Overviews<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">-0.12<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">0.47<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">Very weak<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-3 odd\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">ChatGPT<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">0.01<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">0.95<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">No relationship<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-4 even\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">Perplexity<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">-0.34<\/td><td class=\"column-3\">0.095<\/td><td class=\"column-4\">Weak<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<!-- #tablepress-430 from cache -->\n\n\n<div class=\"post-nav-link clearfix\" id=\"section1\"><a class=\"subhead-anchor\" data-tip=\"tooltip__copielink\" rel=\"#section1\"><svg width=\"19\" height=\"19\" viewBox=\"0 0 14 14\" style><g fill=\"none\" fill-rule=\"evenodd\"><path d=\"M0 0h14v14H0z\" \/><path d=\"M7.45 9.887l-1.62 1.621c-.92.92-2.418.92-3.338 0a2.364 2.364 0 0 1 0-3.339l1.62-1.62-1.273-1.272-1.62 1.62a4.161 4.161 0 1 0 5.885 5.884l1.62-1.62L7.45 9.886zM5.527 5.135L7.17 3.492c.92-.92 2.418-.92 3.339 0 .92.92.92 2.418 0 3.339L8.866 8.473l1.272 1.273 1.644-1.643A4.161 4.161 0 1 0 5.897 2.22L4.254 3.863l1.272 1.272zm-.66 3.998a.749.749 0 0 1 0-1.06l2.208-2.206a.749.749 0 1 1 1.06 1.06L5.928 9.133a.75.75 0 0 1-1.061 0z\" style \/><\/g><\/svg><\/a><div class=\"link-text\" data-anchor=\"Google AI Overviews\" data-section=\"ai-overviews\">\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Google AI Overviews<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Google AI Overviews over-index on UGC sites like YouTube, Reddit, and Quora, as well as encyclopedic content like Wikipedia. We\u2019ve seen this in a few other studies already.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>These sites get extra weight in mentions than their link profile predicts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Google AI Overviews underweights on social media sites like LinkedIn, Instagram, and Facebook. Another pattern we\u2019ve seen in other studies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1686\" height=\"1865\" src=\"https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/word-image-189111-2.png\" alt class=\"wp-image-189114\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/word-image-189111-2.png 1686w, https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/word-image-189111-2-384x425.png 384w, https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/word-image-189111-2-768x850.png 768w, https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/word-image-189111-2-1389x1536.png 1389w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1686px) 100vw, 1686px\"><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"post-nav-link clearfix\" id=\"section1\"><a class=\"subhead-anchor\" data-tip=\"tooltip__copielink\" rel=\"#section1\"><svg width=\"19\" height=\"19\" viewBox=\"0 0 14 14\" style><g fill=\"none\" fill-rule=\"evenodd\"><path d=\"M0 0h14v14H0z\" \/><path d=\"M7.45 9.887l-1.62 1.621c-.92.92-2.418.92-3.338 0a2.364 2.364 0 0 1 0-3.339l1.62-1.62-1.273-1.272-1.62 1.62a4.161 4.161 0 1 0 5.885 5.884l1.62-1.62L7.45 9.886zM5.527 5.135L7.17 3.492c.92-.92 2.418-.92 3.339 0 .92.92.92 2.418 0 3.339L8.866 8.473l1.272 1.273 1.644-1.643A4.161 4.161 0 1 0 5.897 2.22L4.254 3.863l1.272 1.272zm-.66 3.998a.749.749 0 0 1 0-1.06l2.208-2.206a.749.749 0 1 1 1.06 1.06L5.928 9.133a.75.75 0 0 1-1.061 0z\" style \/><\/g><\/svg><\/a><div class=\"link-text\" data-anchor=\"ChatGPT\" data-section=\"chatgpt\">\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a id=\"post-188988-_irxwqc5gl6me\"><\/a><strong>ChatGPT<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>We also see a similar story with ChatGPT, where they are overweight on things like Wikipedia and news sites like Reuters, exactly like we saw before.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1686\" height=\"1865\" src=\"https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/word-image-189111-3.png\" alt class=\"wp-image-189115\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/word-image-189111-3.png 1686w, https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/word-image-189111-3-384x425.png 384w, https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/word-image-189111-3-768x850.png 768w, https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/word-image-189111-3-1389x1536.png 1389w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1686px) 100vw, 1686px\"><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"post-nav-link clearfix\" id=\"section1\"><a class=\"subhead-anchor\" data-tip=\"tooltip__copielink\" rel=\"#section1\"><svg width=\"19\" height=\"19\" viewBox=\"0 0 14 14\" style><g fill=\"none\" fill-rule=\"evenodd\"><path d=\"M0 0h14v14H0z\" \/><path d=\"M7.45 9.887l-1.62 1.621c-.92.92-2.418.92-3.338 0a2.364 2.364 0 0 1 0-3.339l1.62-1.62-1.273-1.272-1.62 1.62a4.161 4.161 0 1 0 5.885 5.884l1.62-1.62L7.45 9.886zM5.527 5.135L7.17 3.492c.92-.92 2.418-.92 3.339 0 .92.92.92 2.418 0 3.339L8.866 8.473l1.272 1.273 1.644-1.643A4.161 4.161 0 1 0 5.897 2.22L4.254 3.863l1.272 1.272zm-.66 3.998a.749.749 0 0 1 0-1.06l2.208-2.206a.749.749 0 1 1 1.06 1.06L5.928 9.133a.75.75 0 0 1-1.061 0z\" style \/><\/g><\/svg><\/a><div class=\"link-text\" data-anchor=\"Perplexity\" data-section=\"perplexity\">\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a id=\"post-188988-_mlz3iyad2zzc\"><\/a>Perplexity<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Perplexity also shows the same biases we\u2019ve seen. YouTube and Wikipedia are overweight, social media sites are underweight.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1686\" height=\"1865\" src=\"https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/word-image-189111-4.png\" alt class=\"wp-image-189116\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/word-image-189111-4.png 1686w, https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/word-image-189111-4-384x425.png 384w, https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/word-image-189111-4-768x850.png 768w, https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/word-image-189111-4-1389x1536.png 1389w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1686px) 100vw, 1686px\"><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a id=\"post-189111-_t5rbtes2yi1w\"><\/a>Final thoughts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>I\u2019m not sure this is enough of a sample size to get a good measure. We actually saw <a href=\"https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/ai-overview-brand-correlation\/\">higher correlations in Google AI Overviews compared to DR<\/a> when we studied 75k sites than we saw in correlations to normal Google rankings across 1 million keywords, 0.326 vs 0.131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We\u2019ll run a bigger study beyond the top 50, as well as look at some more page level metrics for more insights.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If you have questions, ask me on <a href=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/in\/patrickstox\/\">LinkedIn<\/a> or <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/patrickstox\">X<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>I looked at the top 50 websites mentioned in Ahrefs Brand Radar for Google AI Overviews, ChatGPT, and Perplexity. This is across ~76.7M AI Overviews, 957k ChatGPT prompts, and 953.5k Perplexity prompts for the month of June&nbsp;2025. I compared the<span class=\"ellipsis\">\u2026<\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"read-more\">Read more \u203a<\/div>\n<p><!-- end of .read-more --><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":150,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"wp_typography_post_enhancements_disabled":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[469,414],"tags":[],"coauthors":[377],"class_list":["post-189111","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-ai-search","category-data-studies","odd"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Domain-Level Link Metrics May Not Be Good Predictors of AI Search Mentions<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"We analyzed the relationship between a domain&#039;s AI search mentions and it&#039;s Ahrefs Rank, across ~76.7M AI Overviews, 957k ChatGPT prompts, and 953.5k Perplexity prompts\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/domain-link-metrics-not-good-mention-predictors\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Domain-Level Link Metrics May Not Be Good Predictors of AI Search Mentions\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"We analyzed the relationship between a domain&#039;s AI search mentions and it&#039;s Ahrefs Rank, across ~76.7M AI Overviews, 957k ChatGPT prompts, and 953.5k Perplexity prompts\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/domain-link-metrics-not-good-mention-predictors\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"SEO Blog by Ahrefs\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/Ahrefs\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:author\" content=\"patrickstox\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-06-25T10:00:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-08-26T14:51:18+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/ahrefs-brand-radar.jpeg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1273\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"2500\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Patrick Stox\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@patrickstox\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@ahrefs\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/ahrefs.com\\\/blog\\\/domain-link-metrics-not-good-mention-predictors\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/ahrefs.com\\\/blog\\\/domain-link-metrics-not-good-mention-predictors\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Patrick Stox\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/ahrefs.com\\\/blog\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/14bf754248f3c561786477e4e5fd2067\"},\"headline\":\"Domain-Level Link Metrics May Not Be Good Predictors of AI Search Mentions\",\"datePublished\":\"2025-06-25T10:00:00+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2025-08-26T14:51:18+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/ahrefs.com\\\/blog\\\/domain-link-metrics-not-good-mention-predictors\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":604,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/ahrefs.com\\\/blog\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/ahrefs.com\\\/blog\\\/domain-link-metrics-not-good-mention-predictors\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/ahrefs.com\\\/blog\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2025\\\/06\\\/domain-level-link-metrics-may-not-be-by-patrick-stox-data-studies-1.jpg\",\"articleSection\":[\"AI Search\",\"Data &amp; 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