{"id":141420,"date":"2022-05-03T07:02:35","date_gmt":"2022-05-03T12:02:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/?p=141420"},"modified":"2022-10-20T10:04:27","modified_gmt":"2022-10-20T15:04:27","slug":"traffic-estimations-accuracy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/traffic-estimations-accuracy\/","title":{"rendered":"How Accurate Are the Search Traffic Estimations in Ahrefs? (New Research)"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<div class=\"intro-txt\">One of the most common use cases of Ahrefs is to check how much organic search traffic a given website (or webpage) gets.<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>It is widely known that the search traffic numbers in Ahrefs are merely estimations. But how far do they deviate from the actual traffic numbers?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We decided to run a small study and try to quantify that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">What to expect from Ahrefs\u2019 traffic estimations<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Before I share the results of our study with you, I think it is quite important that you understand how Ahrefs traffic estimates are calculated in the first&nbsp;place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Here\u2019s what it looks like in a nutshell:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Take&nbsp;all keywords that a website ranks&nbsp;for<\/li>\n<li>Pull the monthly search volume of each keyword<\/li>\n<li>Look up that website\u2019s ranking position for each keyword<\/li>\n<li>Predict the CTR for each of their search snippets<\/li>\n<li>Sum up clicks from each keyword and compute the total estimated monthly search traffic<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p>Can you tell at which step the discrepancies kick in? (Hint: each&nbsp;one)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Keywords<\/strong> \u2013 It is practically impossible to know <em>all<\/em> the keywords that a given website is ranking for.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Monthly search volumes<\/strong> \u2013 These aren\u2019t particularly precise either (see <a href=\"https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/gsc-gkp-search-volume-study\/\">our recent study<\/a>).<\/li>\n<li><strong>Ranking positions<\/strong> \u2013 The SERPs are very volatile. Today, your page ranks #3; a day later, it ranks #4.<\/li>\n<li><strong>CTR<\/strong> \u2013 It is incredibly hard to predict the CTR of a page on a SERP. There are just too many factors to consider: search intent, ads, SERP features, brand affinity, etc.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>As you can tell, the data that we <em>(or any other SEO tool)<\/em> use for computing the search traffic estimations has many issues that are nearly impossible to fix. And these issues inevitably affect the quality of the resulting traffic estimations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And yet, even though our traffic estimations may deviate from the actual data quite a bit, they\u2019re still good enough to be of immense value for digital marketing professionals of all&nbsp;kinds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Especially so when one understands how these values are being computed (which you do now) and can, therefore, factor in some level of discrepancy while using that data (more on that&nbsp;later).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So that aside, let\u2019s finally see the results of our research.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">How accurate are Ahrefs\u2019 search traffic estimations?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>This very study is inspired by the good folks at <a href=\"https:\/\/www.authorityhacker.com\/\">AuthorityHacker<\/a>. They recently performed research comparing the quality of search traffic estimations from six different SEO&nbsp;tools.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In their study, Ahrefs turned out to be the winner <em>(with an average discrepancy of 22.5% and 0.99 correlation with GSC&nbsp;data).<\/em><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-141536\" src=\"https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/1-search-traffic-estimations.jpg\" alt=\"Results from Authority Hacker's study where Ahrefs came out on top. \" width=\"1999\" height=\"1115\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/1-search-traffic-estimations.jpg 1999w, https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/1-search-traffic-estimations-680x379.jpg 680w, https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/1-search-traffic-estimations-768x428.jpg 768w, https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/1-search-traffic-estimations-1536x857.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1999px) 100vw, 1999px\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>But that study was done on a small sample of just 50 websites. So we decided to replicate it on a larger scale and see how the numbers change.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In our study, we took 1,635 random websites and compared their monthly GSC traffic in the U.S. to their monthly U.S. organic traffic estimates in Ahrefs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We studied the same two factors:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>How much Ahrefs\u2019 traffic estimations deviate from&nbsp;GSC<\/li>\n<li>How consistent our traffic estimations are when compared to&nbsp;GSC<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Deviation<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>In our studied sample of 1,635 websites, the median deviation turned out to be <strong>49.52%<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In other words, most of the time you can expect Ahrefs to misreport a website\u2019s U.S. traffic by up to half of its&nbsp;value.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This may seem like a lot. But in reality, the margin of our error largely depends on the type of website and the industry the site is in. For some websites, we are off by less than 5%. For some others, we can be off by more than 1,000%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But more often than not, our estimates are rather good:<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-141537\" src=\"https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/2-ahrefs-deviation-from-gsc.png\" alt=\"The median deviation between Ahrefs' traffic estimations and GSC is 49.52%.\" width=\"900\" height=\"989\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/2-ahrefs-deviation-from-gsc.png 1800w, https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/2-ahrefs-deviation-from-gsc-387x425.png 387w, https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/2-ahrefs-deviation-from-gsc-768x844.png 768w, https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/2-ahrefs-deviation-from-gsc-1398x1536.png 1398w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 900px) 100vw, 900px\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>To put our median deviation of <strong>49.52%<\/strong> in perspective, we also calculated it for SEMrush, and it turned out to be 68.36%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Consistency<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Here\u2019s what the \u201cconsistency\u201d of traffic estimations refers to:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If one website gets more traffic than the other website (according to GSC data), that should hold true when looking at Ahrefs\u2019 data (regardless of the accuracy of the estimates).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As you may have already guessed, this can be studied by calculating the good old <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Correlation\">correlation<\/a> between the two sets of values.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In our sample size of 1,635 websites, the monthly GSC traffic in the U.S. correlated with that of Ahrefs\u2019 at <strong>0.76<\/strong> (Pearson\u2019s). This means that the above statement will hold true in the vast majority of&nbsp;cases.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"sidenote\"><div class=\"sidenote-title\">Sidenote.<\/div> In case you\u2019re unfamiliar with correlations, \u201c1\u201d means that the two sets of values are in perfect sync. And 0.76 is pretty close to&nbsp;1.<\/div>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-141538\" src=\"https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/3-ahrefs-estimates-correlate-with-gsc.jpg\" alt=\"Ahrefs' traffic estimates strongly correlate with GSC traffic.\" width=\"735.5\" height=\"1000\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/3-ahrefs-estimates-correlate-with-gsc.jpg 1471w, https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/3-ahrefs-estimates-correlate-with-gsc-313x425.jpg 313w, https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/3-ahrefs-estimates-correlate-with-gsc-768x1044.jpg 768w, https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/3-ahrefs-estimates-correlate-with-gsc-1130x1536.jpg 1130w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1471px) 100vw, 1471px\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>As for SEMRush, theirs was 0.74 for the same set of websites.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">A workaround for manually fixing the discrepancy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>As you just learned, Ahrefs can be off by a rather considerable amount when estimating a website\u2019s traffic. But at the same time, it is highly consistent in its traffic estimations. Even more so if the websites you\u2019re comparing belong to the same industry.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>What this means is that you can better estimate the actual search traffic of your competitors by using this simple formula:<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-141539\" src=\"https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/4-formula-to-estimate-search-traffic.png\" alt=\"The formula for fixing traffic estimate discrepancies. \" width=\"1800\" height=\"1069\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/4-formula-to-estimate-search-traffic.png 1800w, https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/4-formula-to-estimate-search-traffic-680x404.png 680w, https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/4-formula-to-estimate-search-traffic-768x456.png 768w, https:\/\/ahrefs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/4-formula-to-estimate-search-traffic-1536x912.png 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1800px) 100vw, 1800px\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>The relationship between GSC traffic and Ahrefs traffic for your own website should hold roughly true for your competitors\u2019 (given that they\u2019re in the same niche as you). So more often than not, using this formula should produce a pretty accurate result.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Final words<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Hopefully, this helped you folks understand what you can expect from Ahrefs\u2019 search traffic estimations and how to work around the discrepancy to get much more accurate data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But most important of all, the results of this research will now serve as a reference point for our product team on our quest to further improve the accuracy of our estimations. Even though it is technically impossible to make them perfect, there\u2019s still quite a bit of room for improvement\u2014which we can try to address.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As always, should you have any comments or questions, you can find me <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/timsoulo\">on Twitter<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>P.S. Big thanks to Alex from our Data Science team for helping me with&nbsp;this.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>It is widely known that the search traffic numbers in Ahrefs are merely estimations. But how far do they deviate from the actual traffic numbers? We decided to run a small study and try to quantify that. What to expect<span class=\"ellipsis\">\u2026<\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"read-more\">Read more \u203a<\/div>\n<p><!-- end of .read-more --><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":81,"featured_media":141737,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"wp_typography_post_enhancements_disabled":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[414],"tags":[],"coauthors":[338],"class_list":["post-141420","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-data-studies","odd"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>How Accurate Are the Search Traffic Estimations in Ahrefs? 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